Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic
Identifieur interne : 000A46 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000A45; suivant : 000A47Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic
Auteurs : Antoine Flahault [France] ; Elisabeta Vergu [France] ; Laurent Coudeville [France] ; Rebecca F. Grais [France]Source :
- Vaccine [ 0264-410X ] ; 2006.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- MESH :
- usage thérapeutique : Antiviraux, Grippe humaine.
- épidémiologie : Grippe humaine.
- Pascal (Inist)
- Wicri :
- topic : Vaccin.
- mix :
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- Antiviral Agents (therapeutic use), Communicable Disease Control (methods), Computer Simulation, Disease Outbreaks (prevention & control), Humans, Immunization, Influenza A, Influenza, Human (epidemiology), Influenza, Human (transmission), Models, Theoretical, Prevention, Travel (statistics & numerical data), Vaccine.
- MESH :
- chemical , therapeutic use : Antiviral Agents.
- epidemiology : Influenza, Human.
- methods : Communicable Disease Control.
- prevention & control : Disease Outbreaks.
- statistics & numerical data : Travel.
- transmission : Influenza, Human.
- Computer Simulation, Humans, Models, Theoretical.
- mix :
Abstract
Mathematical modelling provides useful insight into the geographic and temporal spread of pandemic influenza. It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels.
Url:
Affiliations:
- France
- Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Rhône-Alpes, Île-de-France
- Lyon, Paris
- Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie
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Pascal:07-0009267Le document en format XML
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It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>France</li></country><region><li>Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Rhône-Alpes</li><li>Île-de-France</li></region><settlement><li>Lyon</li><li>Paris</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université Pierre-et-Marie-Curie</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="France"><region name="Île-de-France"><name sortKey="Flahault, Antoine" sort="Flahault, Antoine" uniqKey="Flahault A" first="Antoine" last="Flahault">Antoine Flahault</name></region><name sortKey="Coudeville, Laurent" sort="Coudeville, Laurent" uniqKey="Coudeville L" first="Laurent" last="Coudeville">Laurent Coudeville</name><name sortKey="Grais, Rebecca F" sort="Grais, Rebecca F" uniqKey="Grais R" first="Rebecca F." last="Grais">Rebecca F. Grais</name><name sortKey="Vergu, Elisabeta" sort="Vergu, Elisabeta" uniqKey="Vergu E" first="Elisabeta" last="Vergu">Elisabeta Vergu</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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